So you know what SF world cups you want to go to. Which ones will be close to that? This is a very complicated question. You learn from multiple years of experience what influences attendance at an event, and you talk to people who might be going to get additional information. The person I know who is best at this is Eric Hansen. But here is my take on it.
Location, Timing, and Grand Prix status are the things that influence attendance at a WC. Location and Grand Prix are simple, timing is very complicated. Other factors are internal to individuals and their countries, and require special knowledge of what they're doing this season.
Historical SFs aren't readily available for tournaments except those where US fencers earned points. Keeping track of this year after year can be very useful.
If it's held someplace really far away (Taiwan or Australia) it's too expensive for many people. If it's someplace scary (Colombia or Iran) many people will stay away. If the cost of living is very high (Sweden) some people will stay away because it's too expensive. Unless a war starts or there's a coup, these factors don't change from year to year, but it's best to be aware of world events when planning your season. You can look at the SFs of previous years for one location and guess it won't change too much.
Places like Paris, Heidenheim, Legnano, and Barcelona are sure to get attendance from the strongest fencers in the world, because most of them live in Europe.
If a tournament is designated as a Grand Prix, you receive an extra 50% of the FIE points for a given result. There are five or six GP events in a season, and fencers want those extra points. It seems like the FIE mocks the fencers by designating tournaments in Colombia and Tunisia, but the net effect is to strengthen those events.
This includes countless items, including primarily holidays, other tournaments, and year of the Olympic quadrennial.
If there is a Team event in conjunction with an individual, there is always a higher level of attendance. Within Europe, team and individual combo events get 100% attendance.
If there are WCs six weekends in a row, very few people will go to all of them. If there is a big national tournament in a European country the same weekend as a WC, attendance from members of that country will be much lower or even zero. If there is an important tournament coming up, a National or European Championships or a significantly important WC or team event, fewer people will attend an event the weekend before that. As an example, the Men's Epee event in Paris in 2002 was weaker on paper than the Montreal event the following weekend which had a team event in conjunction, contrary to what you might expect. (In reality there will always be a large number of very strong fencers in Paris who don't have a high world ranking, so it's harder that the SF represents.)
In the year following the Olympics, attendance is very low. It steadily ramps up to very high levels in the season that counts for qualification to the Olympics. Qualification for Athens ends March 31, 2004.
If a tournament is held on Christmas Day, you know not many people will show up. If it's held close to Easter that might create a conflict for some groups of people. I believe the FIE and the local organizers try to minimize these conflicts, but don't forget it's an influence.
Most fencers have a plan for their season, and most strong fencing countries send their strong fencers together to certain tournaments. If you talk to them, you can find out where they will and won't be likely to go this year.
Some countries tend to go to certain tournaments year after year. Italians like to vacation in Cuba. Germans like to vacation in Tunis. Some fencers have friends and relatives they take the opportunity to visit in certain places. These are the kinds of things you can only find out by talking to the fencers themselves or watching them carefully year after year.
Here are the SFs, some estimated and some actual, for Men's Epee WCs from March 2001 to the present, and my forecasts for 2003.
Montreal 25.03.2001 1.000 Bogota 01.04.2001 0.400 Buenos-Aires GP 14.04.2001 0.587 Heidenheim 21.04.2001 4.000 Berne 28.04.2001 2.700 Persepolis 01.05.2001 0.140 Legnano 13.05.2001 2.500 Innsbruck 20.05.2001 2.100 Taiwan GP 27.05.2001 0.350 Stockholm 10.06.2001 1.731 Tunis 17.06.2001 0.676 Havana 24.06.2001 1.781 San-Juan 01.07.2001 0.452 Sydney 15.07.2001 1.000 Bratislava 23.09.2001 1.823 Lisbonne 27.01.2002 1.404 Tallinn 03.02.2002 0.957 Barcelona GP 10.02.2002 3.800 Budapest 23.02.2002 2.000 London 03.03.2002 1.450 Bratislava 10.03.2002 1.000 Paris GP 17.03.2002 3.000 Montreal GP 23.03.2002 3.700 Bogota 30.03.2002 0.498 Heidenheim 06.04.2002 4.000 Berne 14.04.2002 1.471 Buenos-Aires 28.04.2002 0.000 Mashad 04.05.2002 0.452 Legnano GP 12.05.2002 1.754 (affected by boycott) Innsbruck 19.05.2002 3.000 Taiwan GP 26.05.2002 0.818 Stockholm 09.06.2002 1.398 Tunis 16.06.2002 1.158 Havana 23.06.2002 1.212 San-Juan 29.06.2002 0.921 Sydney 14.07.2002 0.704 Tallinn 25.01.2003 1.100 Lisbonne GP 01.02.2003 1.700 Barcelona GP 08.02.2003 4.000 Budapest 22.02.2003 2.200 London 01.03.2003 1.600 Bratislava 08.03.2003 1.100 Paris 15.03.2003 3.300 Montreal GP 21.03.2003 4.000 Bogota GP 28.03.2003 0.550 Heidenheim 02.05.2003 4.000 Legnano 10.05.2003 4.000 Innsbruck 17.05.2003 2.000 Buenos-Aires 24.05.2003 0.500 Stockholm GP 31.05.2003 1.600 Tunis GP 07.06.2003 1.200 Berne 14.06.2003 1.650 Havana 23.06.2003 1.400 San-Juan 28.06.2003 1.000 Persepolis 04.07.2003 0.550 Sydney 19.07.2003 1.000